Rokt forecasts a shift toward relevance, restraint, and smarter signals as online shopping continues to accelerate
Rokt, the leading ecommerce technology company using machine learning and AI to make transactions more relevant to each customer, today released its annual outlook on the forces shaping digital commerce media in the year ahead. As ecommerce continues its rapid expansion–totaling more than $300 billion in U.S. sales in Q2 2025 alone–Rokt predicts that 2026 will mark a transformative shift toward relevance, consumer trust, and more intelligent use of the ecommerce Transaction Moment.
“Commerce media has reached an inflection point,” said Elizabeth Buchanan, Chief Commercial Officer at Rokt. “Brands and retailers are recognizing that scale without control leads to saturation, diminishing returns, and frustrated consumers. What will win in 2026 are experiences that feel intentional, helpful, and designed around the highest-value moment in the customer journey: the transaction.”
Grounded in Rokt’s insights from powering billions of transactions globally each year, the company forecasts the following five trends that will define 2026:
1. Checkout Becomes the Most Valuable Moment in Commerce
As marketing efficiency declines across crowded digital channels, checkout will be redefined as a pivotal moment rather than a transactional form. Rather than stuffing checkout with generic content and/or promotions, companies will adopt a “quality over quantity” approach that prioritizes consumer trust and relevance.
“Checkout is where intent is confirmed, not assumed,” Buchanan said. “It’s the single most valuable signal in digital commerce, and in 2026 we’ll see brands treating it accordingly.”
2. Smarter Signals Replace More Impressions
Rather than chasing volume, ecommerce brands and advertisers will prioritize AI-driven signals rooted in first-party data, contextual relevance, and real purchase intent. The shift will unlock higher performance with fewer touchpoints, helping brands avoid the pitfalls of over-automation and runaway programmatic saturation.
“2026 is the year marketing teams stop asking, ‘How many impressions did we deliver?’ and start asking, ‘Was this moment meaningful?'” Buchanan added.
3. Commerce and Media Teams Converge
As commerce media matures, internal structures will evolve. Brands will collapse siloed functions and build integrated teams that manage checkout, loyalty, onsite media, and customer experience holistically. The best-performing organizations will place checkout at the center of their growth and media strategy.
This convergence will accelerate as ecommerce companies seek better control, consistency, and long-term customer value.
4. Loyalty Programs Expand From Post-Purchase to “In-Purchase” Engagement
In 2026, brands will rethink the role of loyalty by connecting it directly to the Transaction Moment. Rather than relying solely on rewards issued after the sale, brands will extend personalized loyalty benefits directly into checkout, offering relevant perks, upgrades, or value-added services the instant a customer transacts.
This shift will give consumers more timely incentives and help brands deepen relationships when engagement is highest.
5. White Space Becomes a Competitive Advantage
With shoppers increasingly overwhelmed by cluttered digital experiences, intentional white space will rise in value. Successful merchants will remove noise and resist pressure to fill every surface with competing offers, credit card pitches, or banners.
Restraint will become a growth strategy, not a limitation.
“This year, the smartest brands will win by doing less, but doing it with far more relevance,” Buchanan said.
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